El Niño Could Persist Until February 2027 as Kenya Braces for Heavy Rains
2 min read
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that the anticipated El Niño weather conditions could persist until February 2027.
According to the latest forecasts from WMO’s Global Producing Centres, there is now an exceptionally high likelihood, almost 100 per cent, that El Niño conditions will continue through February 2027.
The new forecast is higher than WMO’s earlier estimate, which had placed the chances at about 80 per cent.
Kenya faces risk of heavy rains
Kenya is among the countries in the Greater Horn of Africa that could be affected by the weather pattern.
WMO has warned that El Niño could bring heavy rainfall and cause disruptions across parts of Kenya, Somalia, Mozambique and Eritrea.
The situation is being closely watched because heavy rains could lead to flooding, damage to roads and homes, and disruption of transport and other services.
The latest forecast is linked to unusually warm ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific, which are expected to continue influencing weather patterns in the coming months.
Millions could be affected
Concerns have also been raised about possible displacement caused by the expected rains.
A report by the Danish Refugee Council estimates that up to 1.03 million people could be displaced by the anticipated rainfall in the region.
Kenyan communities living in areas that are prone to flooding and other effects of heavy rainfall have therefore been urged to remain alert as the country prepares for the changing weather conditions.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo has warned that the increasing intensity of El Niño could have a major impact on vulnerable communities and economies.
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